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West Indies tour of Ireland · 2025 · Men
15 Jun 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 42%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paul Stirlingcaught · Rovman Powell · Jason Holder3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Jason Holder | 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 216.67 |
| Ross Adaircaught · Gudakesh Motie · Akeal Hosein 3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Akeal Hosein | 48 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 133.33 |
 Harry Tectorlbw · Roston Chase4 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Roston Chase | 38 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 152.00 |
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · Jason Holder · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Holder · b Akeal Hosein | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Jason Holder |
| 7 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 77.78 |
 George Dockrellcaught · Jason Holder · Akeal Hosein3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Holder · b Akeal Hosein | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 187.50 |
|---|
| Mark Adairnot out 0 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 31* | 14 | 0 | 4 | 221.43 |
|---|
| Barry McCarthycaught · Evin Lewis · Romario Shepherd 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Evin Lewis · b Romario Shepherd | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| L McCarthynot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 16* | 15 | 1 | 1 | 106.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 16 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 12.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 11.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 6 | 0 |
1-13 (Paul Stirling, 1.1) · 2-114 (Harry Tector, 10.5) · 3-115 (Lorcan Tucker, 11.3) · 4-116 (Ross Adair, 12.0) · 5-139 (George Dockrell, 14.0) · 6-151 (Tim Tector, 15.1) · 7-161 (Barry McCarthy, 16.1)
Recorded target: 257 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 20/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 21 | 47/1 |
| 6 | 17 | 64/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 69/1 |
| 8 | 15 | 84/1 |
| 9 | 15 | 99/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 111/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 115/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 116/4 |
| 13 | 12 | 128/4 |
| 14 | 11 | 139/5 |
| 15 | 12 | 151/5 |
| 16 | 9 | 160/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 165/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 169/7 |
| 19 | 14 | 183/7 |
| 20 | 11 | 194/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
