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Photo: Dave Morton
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ICC Women's T20 World Cup · 2024/25 · Women
20 Oct 2024 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 47%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 53%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Suzie Bates · Amelia Kerr5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Amelia Kerr | 33 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 122.22 |
| Tazmin Britscaught · Maddy Green · Fran Jonas 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maddy Green · b Fran Jonas | 17 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 94.44 |
| Anne Boschcaught · Izzy Gaze · Amelia Kerr 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Amelia Kerr | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
 Marizanne Kappcaught · Georgia Plimmer · Eden Carson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Eden Carson | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| caught · Amelia Kerr · b Rosemary Mair |
| 6 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 85.71 |
 Chloe Tryoncaught · Maddy Green · Rosemary Mair1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maddy Green · b Rosemary Mair | 14 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Suné Luuscaught · Suzie Bates · Brooke Halliday 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Brooke Halliday | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Annerie Dercksencaught · Suzie Bates · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Amelia Kerr | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Sinalo Jaftabowled · Rosemary Mair 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rosemary Mair | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Nonkululeko Mlabanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Ayabonga Khakanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Fran Jonas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-51 (Tazmin Brits, 6.5) · 2-59 (Laura Wolvaardt, 9.1) · 3-64 (Anne Bosch, 10.0) · 4-77 (Marizanne Kapp, 12.0) · 5-77 (Nadine de Klerk, 12.1) · 6-97 (Suné Luus, 15.1) · 7-111 (Annerie Dercksen, 17.3) · 8-117 (Chloe Tryon, 18.1) · 9-120 (Sinalo Jafta, 18.5)
Recorded target: 159 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 34/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 37/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 47/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 58/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 59/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 64/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 70/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 77/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 81/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 86/5 |
| 15 | 10 | 96/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 100/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 107/6 |
| 18 | 10 | 117/7 |
| 19 | 4 | 121/9 |
| 20 | 5 | 126/9 |
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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