Chennai Super KingsversusMumbai Indians

23 Apr 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chennai Super Kings won by 103 runs

Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs207/6 Mumbai Indians19.0 overs104/10 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chennai Super Kings started on 41%; Chennai Super Kings batted first.

Chennai Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Chennai Super Kings's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 0% to 61%).

Biggest swings

1.3: HH Pandya to RD Gaikwad, four by RD Gaikwad. Chennai Super Kings up from 44% to 54%.
2.6: AM Ghazanfar to RD Gaikwad, RD Gaikwad out. Mumbai Indians up from 42% to 53%.
2nd inns 0.6: AJ Hosein to DV Malewar, DV Malewar out. Chennai Super Kings up from 58% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chennai Super Kings207/6 Mumbai Indians104/10

Innings 1