**New Road, Worcester**
Photo: Ruth Sharville
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

WorcestershireversusLeicestershire

11 Jul 2024 · T20

New Road, Worcester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Worcestershire won by 16 runs

Worcestershire20.0 overs184/8 Leicestershire19.5 overs168/10 New Road, Worcester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Worcestershire started on 47%; Worcestershire batted first.

Worcestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Leicestershire is the rest

Worcestershire's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (Leicestershire: 1% to 62%).

Biggest swings

4.5: BWM Mike to JJ Cobb, JJ Cobb out. Leicestershire up from 43% to 53%.
2nd inns 0.4: TAI Taylor to RK Patel, RK Patel out. Worcestershire up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 13.1: EA Brookes to LPJ Kimber, LPJ Kimber out. Worcestershire up from 77% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Leicestershire chose to field
match referees: Wayne Noon
umpires: AG Wharf, AC Harris

Match history & source

On 11 Jul 2024, Worcestershire played Leicestershire at New Road, Worcester. Recorded result: Worcestershire won by 16 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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