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Sri Lanka Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
18 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 60%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbescaught · Sugandika Kumari · Achini Kulasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sugandika Kumari · b Achini Kulasuriya | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
| CE Coulter Reillycaught · Kavisha Dilhari · Achini Kulasuriya 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b Achini Kulasuriya | 24 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 63.16 |
| Amy Huntercaught · Achini Kulasuriya · Chamari Atapattu 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Achini Kulasuriya · b Chamari Atapattu | 66 | 71 | 8 | 0 | 92.96 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Achini Kulasuriya · Kavisha Dilhari 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Achini Kulasuriya · b Kavisha Dilhari | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Leah Paulstumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Kavisha Dilhari 6 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Kavisha Dilhari |
Ireland's chances ranged from 16% to 99% during the match (Sri Lanka: 1% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 101 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 80.20 |
| Rebecca Stokellnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 53* | 61 | 2 | 1 | 86.89 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Achini Kulasuriya1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 48 | 2 | 4.80 | 3 | 0 |
| Sachini Nisansala0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 5.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 3.89 | 1 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 3 | 0 |
1-10 (Sarah Forbes, 5.1) · 2-55 (CE Coulter Reilly, 14.0) · 3-77 (Orla Prendergast, 17.3) · 4-134 (Amy Hunter, 30.3) · 5-248 (Leah Paul, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 16/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 20/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 20/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 31/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 42/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 44/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 52/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 55/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 65/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 72/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 80/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 84/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 21 | 8 | 95/3 |
| 22 | 0 | 95/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 100/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 104/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 113/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 119/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 127/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 134/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 135/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 137/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 141/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 145/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 151/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 154/4 |
| 37 | 11 | 165/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 169/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 173/4 |
| 40 | 4 | 177/4 |
| 41 | 7 | 184/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 192/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 198/4 |
| 44 | 7 | 205/4 |
| 45 | 7 | 212/4 |
| 46 | 9 | 221/4 |
| 47 | 9 | 230/4 |
| 48 | 10 | 240/4 |
| 49 | 8 | 248/4 |
| 50 | 7 | 255/5 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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