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Sri Lanka Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
18 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 60%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnebowled · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Orla Prendergast | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Chamari Atapattucaught · FA Sargent · Jane Maguire4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · FA Sargent · b Jane Maguire | 22 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 81.48 |
 Harshitha Madavirun out · Sarah Forbes, Amy Hunter · Arlene Kelly11 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sarah Forbes, Amy Hunter | 105 | 124 | 11 | 0 | 84.68 |
 Kavisha Dilharicaught · Aimee Maguire · FA Sargent1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aimee Maguire · b FA Sargent |
Ireland's chances ranged from 16% to 99% during the match (Sri Lanka: 1% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 53 |
| 71 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 74.65 |
 Anushka Sanjeewanibowled · Jane Maguire0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jane Maguire | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Hasini Pereracaught · Arlene Kelly · Aimee Maguire1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arlene Kelly · b Aimee Maguire | 14 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Nilakshi de Silvanot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 24* | 21 | 3 | 1 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Sachini Nisansalarun out · Amy Hunter, Aimee Maguire · Arlene Kelly 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amy Hunter, Aimee Maguire | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Sugandika Kumaricaught · Aimee Maguire · Arlene Kelly0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aimee Maguire · b Arlene Kelly | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Achini Kulasuriyabowled · Arlene Kelly0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arlene Kelly | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Udeshika Prabodhanibowled · Arlene Kelly0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arlene Kelly | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Alana Dalzell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 5.83 | 3 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 4.13 | 1 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 5.13 | 0 | 0 |
| Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 2 | 0 |
| FA Sargent0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 2.1) · 2-46 (Chamari Atapattu, 8.4) · 3-172 (Kavisha Dilhari, 33.5) · 4-173 (Anushka Sanjeewani, 34.5) · 5-210 (Harshitha Madavi, 42.0) · 6-210 (Hasini Perera, 42.2) · 7-212 (Sachini Nisansala, 43.1) · 8-214 (Sugandika Kumari, 43.3) · 9-214 (Achini Kulasuriya, 43.5) · 10-240 (Udeshika Prabodhani, 48.0)
Recorded target: 256 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 58/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 64/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 67/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 73/2 |
| 16 | 10 | 83/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 88/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 96/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 104/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 107/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 112/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 117/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 120/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 124/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 127/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 131/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 133/2 |
| 28 | 5 | 138/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 144/2 |
| 30 | 7 | 151/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 156/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 160/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 166/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 172/3 |
| 35 | 1 | 173/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 174/4 |
| 37 | 8 | 182/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 188/4 |
| 39 | 6 | 194/4 |
| 40 | 4 | 198/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 204/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 210/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 212/6 |
| 44 | 2 | 214/9 |
| 45 | 9 | 223/9 |
| 46 | 7 | 230/9 |
| 47 | 3 | 233/9 |
| 48 | 7 | 240/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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