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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
12 May 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 19%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittlbw · SS Kang 4 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b SS Kang | 39 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 118.18 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Alishan Sharafu · D Parashar 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b D Parashar | 52 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 118.18 |
| Vikramjit Singhcaught · D Parashar · Muhammad Jawadullah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Parashar · b Muhammad Jawadullah | 15 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Scott Edwardsrun out · Aryansh Sharma · D Parashar 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aryansh Sharma | 42 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 97.67 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Aryansh Sharma · Aayan Afzal Khan2 fours · 0 sixes |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (Netherlands: 73% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Aayan Afzal Khan |
| 17 |
| 28 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 60.71 |
 Bas de Leedenot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 19* | 28 | 2 | 0 | 67.86 |
|---|
| Noah Croesnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Jawadullah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 7.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 49 | 1 | 5.44 | 1 | 0 |
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| SS Kang0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 1 | 0 |
1-77 (Michael Levitt, 9.5) · 2-112 (Max O'Dowd, 15.2) · 3-128 (Vikramjit Singh, 18.3) · 4-160 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 26.1) · 5-184 (Scott Edwards, 32.0)
Recorded target: 205 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 34/0 |
| 5 | 14 | 48/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 52/0 |
| 7 | 11 | 63/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 65/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 70/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 77/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 84/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 94/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 101/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 103/1 |
| 15 | 9 | 112/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 115/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 123/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 126/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 129/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 134/3 |
| 21 | 8 | 142/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 144/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 148/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 154/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 159/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 160/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 160/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 163/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 170/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 174/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 178/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 184/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 185/5 |
| 34 | 6 | 191/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 194/5 |
| 36 | 11 | 205/5 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
