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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
6 Sept 2024 · Test
The Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Vishwa Fernando · Asitha Fernando1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vishwa Fernando · b Asitha Fernando | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Lahiru Kumara3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Lahiru Kumara | 35 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 100.00 |
 Ollie Popebowled · Lahiru Kumara1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lahiru Kumara | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 43.75 |
| lbw · b Vishwa Fernando |
| 12 |
| 18 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
 Harry Brooklbw · Vishwa Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Vishwa Fernando | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Kusal Mendis · Vishwa Fernando10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Vishwa Fernando | 67 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 134.00 |
|---|
 Chris Woakescaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Lahiru Kumara0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Lahiru Kumara | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonlbw · Milan Priyanath 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Milan Priyanath | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 7.14 |
|---|
 Oli Stonecaught · KNM Fernando · Lahiru Kumara1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KNM Fernando · b Lahiru Kumara | 10 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 32.26 |
|---|
| Josh Hullnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 6 | 0 | 1 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashircaught · KNM Fernando · Asitha Fernando 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KNM Fernando · b Asitha Fernando | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 2 | 49 | 2 | 4.08 | 0 | 0 |
| Milan Priyanath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 6.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Lahiru Kumara1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 21 | 4 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Vishwa Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 5.11 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Ben Duckett, 3.0) · 2-35 (Ollie Pope, 7.4) · 3-56 (Daniel Lawrence, 11.1) · 4-66 (Joe Root, 14.3) · 5-69 (Harry Brook, 16.3) · 6-70 (Chris Woakes, 17.3) · 7-82 (Gus Atkinson, 23.3) · 8-140 (Jamie Smith, 30.5) · 9-145 (Oli Stone, 32.1) · 10-156 (Shoaib Bashir, 33.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 29/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 35/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 37/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 43/2 |
| 11 | 13 | 56/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 57/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 59/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 62/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 67/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 69/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 69/5 |
| 18 | 1 | 70/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 71/6 |
| 20 | 1 | 72/6 |
| 21 | 1 | 73/6 |
| 22 | 7 | 80/6 |
| 23 | 1 | 81/6 |
| 24 | 2 | 83/7 |
| 25 | 1 | 84/7 |
| 26 | 0 | 84/7 |
| 27 | 20 | 104/7 |
| 28 | 0 | 104/7 |
| 29 | 16 | 120/7 |
| 30 | 5 | 125/7 |
| 31 | 15 | 140/8 |
| 32 | 1 | 141/8 |
| 33 | 8 | 149/9 |
| 34 | 7 | 156/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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