SamoaversusOman

8 Oct 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 5 wickets

Samoa20.0 overs92/9 Oman17.0 overs96/5 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 2) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

27%Samoa73%Oman

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Samoa (1,437 vs 1,307 on our results rating)
Oman are playing at home in Oman

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Samoa started on 26%; Samoa batted first.

Samoa’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Samoa's chances ranged from 0% to 26% during the match (Oman: 74% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: Shah Faisal to SM Solia, SM Solia out. Oman up from 75% to 83%.
2.2: Shah Faisal to D Visser, D Visser out. Oman up from 82% to 88%.
6.1: Mohammad Nadeem to BF Mailata, BF Mailata out. Oman up from 89% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Samoa92/9 Oman96/5

Innings 1

Samoa

92/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Samoa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sean Soliacaught · Aamir Kaleem · Shah Faisal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aamir Kaleem · b Shah Faisal	2	6	0	0	33.33
Darius Vissercaught · Hassnain Shah · Shah Faisal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hassnain Shah · b Shah Faisal	1	5	0	0	20.00
SJ Frenchlbw · Mohammad Nadeem 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Mohammad Nadeem	5	16	0	0	31.25
BF Mailatacaught · Jiten Ramanandi · Mohammad Nadeem 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jiten Ramanandi · b Mohammad Nadeem	3	11	0	0	27.27
Ross Taylorlbw · Hassnain Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Hassnain Shah	22

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shah Faisal1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	2	3.00	1
Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	0	3.25	0
Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	2	5.00	1
Nadeem Khan (2)1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	1	2.75	0
Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	2	6.00	0
Hassnain Shah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	1	3/1
3	5	8/2
4	4	12/2
5	2	14/2
6	6	20/2
7	1	21/4
8	2	23/5
9	4	27/5
10	1	28/5
11	10	38/5
12	5	43/5
13	4	47/6
14	4	51/6
15	5	56/7
16	4	60/7
17	9	69/7
18	8	77/8
19	9	86/8
20	6	92/9

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