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Photo: Marc Dalmulder from Hamlyn Terrace, Australia
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
4 Jan 2026 · Test
Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleylbw · Michael Neser3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Michael Neser | 16 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 55.17 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 27 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 112.50 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Alex Carey · Scott Boland 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Scott Boland | 10 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 43.48 |
 |
| caught and bowled · b Michael Neser |
| 160 |
| 242 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 66.12 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Steve Smith · Scott Boland6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Scott Boland | 84 | 97 | 6 | 1 | 86.60 |
|---|
 Ben Stokescaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Scott Boland · Marnus Labuschagne6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Scott Boland · b Marnus Labuschagne | 46 | 76 | 6 | 1 | 60.53 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Cameron Green · Michael Neser2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Michael Neser | 27 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 43.55 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Alex Carey · Cameron Green0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Cameron Green | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottsnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 16 | 0 | 0 | 6.25 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguebowled · Michael Neser 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Michael Neser | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 2 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 23.0 | 2 | 93 | 2 | 4.04 | 0 | 1 |
 Michael Neser2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.3 | 2 | 60 | 4 | 3.24 | 0 | 0 |
 Scott Boland2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 26.0 | 2 | 85 | 2 | 3.27 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 18.0 | 0 | 85 | 1 | 4.72 | 1 | 1 |
 Beau Webster0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 4.67 | 1 | 1 |
1-35 (Ben Duckett, 6.5) · 2-51 (Zak Crawley, 11.4) · 3-57 (Jacob Bethell, 13.0) · 4-226 (Harry Brook, 47.4) · 5-229 (Ben Stokes, 50.5) · 6-323 (Jamie Smith, 74.4) · 7-375 (Will Jacks, 92.0) · 8-382 (Brydon Carse, 94.1) · 9-384 (Joe Root, 97.1) · 10-384 (Josh Tongue, 97.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 47/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 51/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 57/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 63/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 67/3 |
| 17 | 8 | 75/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 80/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 85/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 87/3 |
| 22 | 9 | 96/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 101/3 |
| 24 | 13 | 114/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 121/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 128/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 130/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 134/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 137/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 142/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 147/3 |
| 32 | 5 | 152/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 155/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 161/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 165/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 170/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 173/3 |
| 38 | 6 | 179/3 |
| 39 | 2 | 181/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 191/3 |
| 41 | 3 | 194/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 200/3 |
| 43 | 2 | 202/3 |
| 44 | 6 | 208/3 |
| 45 | 3 | 211/3 |
| 46 | 6 | 217/3 |
| 47 | 6 | 223/3 |
| 48 | 3 | 226/4 |
| 49 | 1 | 227/4 |
| 50 | 1 | 228/4 |
| 51 | 1 | 229/5 |
| 52 | 0 | 229/5 |
| 53 | 0 | 229/5 |
| 54 | 6 | 235/5 |
| 55 | 6 | 241/5 |
| 56 | 5 | 246/5 |
| 57 | 11 | 257/5 |
| 58 | 4 | 261/5 |
| 59 | 2 | 263/5 |
| 60 | 9 | 272/5 |
| 61 | 1 | 273/5 |
| 62 | 0 | 273/5 |
| 63 | 6 | 279/5 |
| 64 | 1 | 280/5 |
| 65 | 6 | 286/5 |
| 66 | 5 | 291/5 |
| 67 | 3 | 294/5 |
| 68 | 1 | 295/5 |
| 69 | 4 | 299/5 |
| 70 | 4 | 303/5 |
| 71 | 3 | 306/5 |
| 72 | 3 | 309/5 |
| 73 | 3 | 312/5 |
| 74 | 8 | 320/5 |
| 75 | 3 | 323/6 |
| 76 | 3 | 326/6 |
| 77 | 4 | 330/6 |
| 78 | 6 | 336/6 |
| 79 | 7 | 343/6 |
| 80 | 4 | 347/6 |
| 81 | 4 | 351/6 |
| 82 | 0 | 351/6 |
| 83 | 6 | 357/6 |
| 84 | 4 | 361/6 |
| 85 | 1 | 362/6 |
| 86 | 1 | 363/6 |
| 87 | 2 | 365/6 |
| 88 | 2 | 367/6 |
| 89 | 3 | 370/6 |
| 90 | 3 | 373/6 |
| 91 | 1 | 374/6 |
| 92 | 1 | 375/7 |
| 93 | 3 | 378/7 |
| 94 | 4 | 382/7 |
| 95 | 1 | 383/8 |
| 96 | 0 | 383/8 |
| 97 | 1 | 384/8 |
| 98 | 0 | 384/10 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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