Royal Challengers BengaluruversusChennai Super Kings

28 Mar 2025 · T20

MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 50 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs196/7 Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs146/8 MA Chidambaram Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 46%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Chennai Super Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Chennai Super Kings: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

4.6: Noor Ahmad to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Chennai Super Kings up from 36% to 45%.
2nd inns 1.2: JR Hazlewood to RA Tripathi, RA Tripathi out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 67% to 77%.
2nd inns 1.6: JR Hazlewood to RD Gaikwad, RD Gaikwad out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 79% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru196/7 Chennai Super Kings146/8

Innings 1