Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusTrinbago Knight Riders

27 Aug 2025 · T20

Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Trinbago Knight Riders won by 8 wickets

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs146/7 Trinbago Knight Riders18.4 overs152/2 Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 42%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Trinbago Knight Riders is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Trinbago Knight Riders: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Mohammad Amir to RRS Cornwall, RRS Cornwall out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 58% to 71%.
6.4: AJ Hosein to AGS Gous, AGS Gous out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 61% to 70%.
2nd inns 3.3: Shakib Al Hasan to C Munro, C Munro out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 20% to 30%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.