New ZealandversusAustralia

21 Mar 2025 · T20

Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 8 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs137/2 Australia13.3 overs138/2 Eden Park, Auckland ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

18%New Zealand82%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,808 vs 1,598 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and New Zealand won 2
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 17%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (Australia: 64% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: D Brown to SW Bates, SW Bates out. Australia up from 69% to 75%.
17.6: ML Schutt to SFM Devine, four by SFM Devine. New Zealand up from 24% to 29%.
2nd inns 1.2: RA Mair to G Voll, four by G Voll. Australia up from 70% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand137/2 Australia138/2

Innings 2

Australia

138/213.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Beth Mooneynot out 10 fours · 1 sixes	not out	75*	42	10	1	178.57
Georgia Vollcaught · Eden Carson · Lea Tahuhu 9 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Eden Carson · b Lea Tahuhu	50	31	9	0	161.29
Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Polly Inglis · Lea Tahuhu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Polly Inglis · b Lea Tahuhu	2	4	0	0	50.00
Ellyse Perrynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	0	0
Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	1.3	18	0	12.00	1	2
Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0	0
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	2	10.33	1	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	0	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	16	18/0
3	12	30/0
4	15	45/0
5	18	63/0
6	14	77/0
7	7	84/0
8	9	93/0
9	12	105/0
10	8	113/0
11	10	123/1
12	7	130/1
13	6	136/2
14	2	138/2

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.