St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusBarbados Royals

17 Sept 2024 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Barbados Royals won by 9 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots19.1 overs110/10 Barbados Royals11.2 overs113/1 Kensington Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 38%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Royals is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (Barbados Royals: 55% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.3: Naveen-ul-Haq to E Lewis, E Lewis out. Barbados Royals up from 61% to 70%.
7.1: RRS Cornwall to ADS Fletcher, ADS Fletcher out. Barbados Royals up from 66% to 74%.
8.4: OC McCoy to RR Rossouw, RR Rossouw out. Barbados Royals up from 80% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots110/10 Barbados Royals113/1

Innings 1