EnglandversusSouth Africa

2 Sept 2025 · ODI

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 7 wickets

England24.3 overs131/10 South Africa20.5 overs137/3 Headingley ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%England47%South Africa

Why

England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
On results in ODIs so far, South Africa rate stronger than England (1,667 vs 1,628 on our results rating)
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, South Africa won 6 and England won 4

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 50%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

England's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (South Africa: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: N Burger to BM Duckett, BM Duckett out. South Africa up from 41% to 60%.
13.6: PWA Mulder to JL Smith, HC Brook out. South Africa up from 41% to 59%.
17.2: PWA Mulder to JL Smith, JL Smith out. South Africa up from 48% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England131/10 South Africa137/3

Innings 2

South Africa

137/320.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aiden Markramcaught · Jamie Smith · Adil Rashid 13 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Jamie Smith · b Adil Rashid	86	55	13	2	156.36
Ryan Rickeltonnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes	not out	31*	59	4	0	52.54
Temba Bavumacaught · Will Jacks · Adil Rashid 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Will Jacks · b Adil Rashid	6	9	0	0	66.67
Tristan Stubbsbowled · Adil Rashid 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adil Rashid	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sonny Baker0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	0	76	0	10.86	4	0
Jofra Archer1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	1	8	0	1.60	0	0
Brydon Carse0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	5.0	0	24	0	4.80	0	1
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	26	3	6.78	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	0	14/0
3	20	34/0
4	5	39/0
5	10	49/0
6	1	50/0
7	12	62/0
8	1	63/0
9	2	65/0
10	2	67/0
11	9	76/0
12	2	78/0
13	2	80/0
14	10	90/0
15	5	95/0
16	8	103/0
17	11	114/0
18	7	121/0
19	4	125/1
20	6	131/1
21	6	137/3

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