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South Africa Women tour of West Indies · 2025 · Women
14 Jun 2025 · ODI
Three Ws Oval, Cave Hill, Barbados · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 45%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Chinelle Henry · Hayley Matthews4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chinelle Henry · b Hayley Matthews | 28 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 59.57 |
| Tazmin Britscaught · Stafanie Taylor · Afy Fletcher 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Stafanie Taylor · b Afy Fletcher | 26 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 48.15 |
| Nondumiso Shangasecaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Hayley Matthews 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shemaine Campbelle · b Hayley Matthews | 55 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 114.58 |
| Suné Luuscaught · Hayley Matthews · Aaliyah Alleyne 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 76 | 65 | 8 | 0 | 116.92 |
 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| stumped · Shemaine Campbelle · b Karishma Ramharack |
| 32 |
| 29 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 110.34 |
| Sinalo Jaftalbw · Afy Fletcher 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Afy Fletcher | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Annerie Dercksencaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Afy Fletcher 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shemaine Campbelle · b Afy Fletcher | 37 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 154.17 |
|---|
 Chloe Tryoncaught · Realeanna Grimmond · Afy Fletcher3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Realeanna Grimmond · b Afy Fletcher | 28 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 147.37 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerkrun out · Shemaine Campbelle, Jannillea Glasgow · Jannillea Glasgow 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shemaine Campbelle, Jannillea Glasgow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
|---|
 Nonkululeko Mlabanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Ayanda Hlubinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jannillea Glasgow0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 5.43 | 1 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 4 | 6.40 | 1 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 8.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 62 | 1 | 7.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Qiana Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-51 (Laura Wolvaardt, 15.1) · 2-59 (Tazmin Brits, 18.1) · 3-144 (Nondumiso Shangase, 29.4) · 4-193 (Marizanne Kapp, 37.5) · 5-196 (Sinalo Jafta, 38.4) · 6-236 (Suné Luus, 42.3) · 7-293 (Chloe Tryon, 48.1) · 8-295 (Annerie Dercksen, 48.5) · 9-307 (Nadine de Klerk, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 26/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 30/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 32/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 37/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 38/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 41/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 41/0 |
| 13 | 5 | 46/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 47/0 |
| 15 | 4 | 51/0 |
| 16 | 1 | 52/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 55/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 62/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 65/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 71/2 |
| 22 | 9 | 80/2 |
| 23 | 14 | 94/2 |
| 24 | 8 | 102/2 |
| 25 | 9 | 111/2 |
| 26 | 11 | 122/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 124/2 |
| 28 | 10 | 134/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 139/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 144/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 146/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 149/3 |
| 33 | 7 | 156/3 |
| 34 | 13 | 169/3 |
| 35 | 8 | 177/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 181/3 |
| 37 | 11 | 192/3 |
| 38 | 2 | 194/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 197/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 203/5 |
| 41 | 11 | 214/5 |
| 42 | 15 | 229/5 |
| 43 | 11 | 240/6 |
| 44 | 12 | 252/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 261/6 |
| 46 | 9 | 270/6 |
| 47 | 17 | 287/6 |
| 48 | 6 | 293/6 |
| 49 | 2 | 295/8 |
| 50 | 14 | 309/9 |
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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