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South Africa Women tour of West Indies · 2025 · Women
14 Jun 2025 · ODI
Three Ws Oval, Cave Hill, Barbados · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 45%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayley Matthewscaught · Nondumiso Shangase · Nonkululeko Mlaba9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nondumiso Shangase · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 56 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 96.55 |
| Qiana Josephcaught · Sinalo Jafta · Marizanne Kapp 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Marizanne Kapp | 17 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 89.47 |
| Realeanna Grimmondcaught · Sinalo Jafta · Nadine de Klerk 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Nadine de Klerk | 15 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 75.00 |
 Stafanie Taylorcaught · Chloe Tryon · Nonkululeko Mlaba1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chloe Tryon · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 17 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 51.52 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Chinelle Henrycaught · Annerie Dercksen · Nondumiso Shangase4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Nondumiso Shangase | 39 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Shemaine Campbellecaught · Ayanda Hlubi · Marizanne Kapp4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ayanda Hlubi · b Marizanne Kapp | 53 | 58 | 4 | 1 | 91.38 |
|---|
| Jannillea Glasgowcaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Nonkululeko Mlaba 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 17 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 80.95 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynecaught · Sinalo Jafta · Nonkululeko Mlaba 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Zaida Jamescaught · Nadine de Klerk · Chloe Tryon 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Chloe Tryon | 18 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 78.26 |
|---|
 Afy Fletchernot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 19* | 20 | 1 | 1 | 95.00 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharackcaught · Tazmin Brits · Ayanda Hlubi0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits · b Ayanda Hlubi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ayanda Hlubi1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 47 | 1 | 5.88 | 2 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 5.83 | 1 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.57 | 0 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-40 (Qiana Joseph, 7.0) · 2-80 (Realeanna Grimmond, 13.5) · 3-107 (Hayley Matthews, 19.5) · 4-120 (Stafanie Taylor, 23.2) · 5-178 (Chinelle Henry, 34.1) · 6-222 (Jannillea Glasgow, 40.5) · 7-226 (Shemaine Campbelle, 41.5) · 8-226 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 42.3) · 9-254 (Zaida James, 48.3) · 10-269 (Karishma Ramharack, 50.0)
Recorded target: 310 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 31/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 48/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 56/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 62/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 62/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 69/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 73/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 81/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 88/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 90/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 96/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 101/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 104/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 113/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 117/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 119/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 123/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 129/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 132/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 136/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 141/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 145/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 153/4 |
| 31 | 8 | 161/4 |
| 32 | 13 | 174/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 176/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 178/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 184/5 |
| 36 | 10 | 194/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 196/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 201/5 |
| 39 | 11 | 212/5 |
| 40 | 9 | 221/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 222/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 226/7 |
| 43 | 2 | 228/8 |
| 44 | 8 | 236/8 |
| 45 | 1 | 237/8 |
| 46 | 8 | 245/8 |
| 47 | 2 | 247/8 |
| 48 | 7 | 254/8 |
| 49 | 6 | 260/9 |
| 50 | 9 | 269/10 |
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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