Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Stars

23 Dec 2025 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Stars won by 6 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs155/8 Melbourne Stars18.1 overs161/4 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 52%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: TK Curran to CA Lynn, CA Lynn out. Melbourne Stars up from 46% to 58%.
1.4: TK Curran to JJS Sangha, JJS Sangha out. Melbourne Stars up from 59% to 70%.
7.5: MP Stoinis to L Scott, L Scott out. Melbourne Stars up from 47% to 56%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers155/8 Melbourne Stars161/4

Innings 1