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Photo: Dave Morton
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Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women
2 Sept 2026 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 65%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Indonesia: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Corazonbowled · Chamari Atapattu 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chamari Atapattu | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| RD Pangestutibowled · Chamari Atapattu 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chamari Atapattu | 10 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 71.43 |
| NLKWR Dewilbw · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sugandika Kumari | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| NPAN Sakarinicaught · C Praboda · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Praboda · b Chamari Atapattu | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 29.17 |
| NKF Rada Ranilbw · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| bowled · b Kavisha Dilhari |
| 3 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 23.08 |
| NMP Suwandewinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 32 | 1 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Sofia Veliccaught and bowled · Kawya Kavindi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kawya Kavindi | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| NK Arianibowled · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chamari Atapattu | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| SAN Mayprianilbw · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| DAL Paramithalbw · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chethana Vimukthi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Kawya Kavindi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1.43 | 1 | 0 |
| C Praboda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (RD Pangestuti, 3.4) · 2-19 (NLKWR Dewi, 4.2) · 3-21 (M Corazon, 5.1) · 4-21 (NKF Rada Rani, 5.2) · 5-29 (D Wulandari, 10.0) · 6-36 (NPAN Sakarini, 13.4) · 7-46 (Sofia Velic, 17.3) · 8-49 (NK Ariani, 18.1) · 9-49 (SAN Maypriani, 18.2) · 10-49 (DAL Paramitha, 18.3)
Recorded target: 125 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 21/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 26/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 27/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 28/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 29/5 |
| 11 | 2 | 31/5 |
| 12 | 1 | 32/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 34/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 36/6 |
| 15 | 6 | 42/6 |
| 16 | 0 | 42/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 45/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 49/7 |
| 19 | 0 | 49/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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