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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Americas Region Final · 2025 · Men
15 Jun 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 53%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Bermuda: 0% to 51%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terryn Fraycaught and bowled · Dillon Heyliger 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Dillon Heyliger | 10 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Tre Mandersrun out · Nicholas Kirton · Dillon Heyliger 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nicholas Kirton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Onais Bascomebowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
 Delray Rawlinscaught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · Shivam Sharma (3)1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · b Shivam Sharma (3) | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
| MJ Scotlandbowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| D Sabirbowled · Harsh Thaker 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Harsh Thaker | 22 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 104.76 |
|---|
| Derrick Brangmannot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 32* | 35 | 1 | 1 | 91.43 |
|---|
| Sinclair Smithcaught · Aaron Johnson · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Harsh Thaker | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| J Proctorrun out · Nicholas Kirton · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nicholas Kirton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Zeko Burgesscaught · Nicholas Kirton · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Chare Smithcaught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · Jaskaran Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · b Jaskaran Singh | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaskaran Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 8.57 | 2 | 0 |
| Shivam Sharma (3)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Tre Manders, 1.2) · 2-18 (Terryn Fray, 3.3) · 3-18 (Onais Bascome, 4.1) · 4-18 (MJ Scotland, 4.2) · 5-35 (Delray Rawlins, 7.1) · 6-76 (D Sabir, 13.3) · 7-94 (Sinclair Smith, 17.4) · 8-94 (J Proctor, 17.5) · 9-94 (Zeko Burgess, 18.4) · 10-95 (Chare Smith, 19.1)
Recorded target: 206 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 18/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 22/4 |
| 6 | 3 | 25/4 |
| 7 | 10 | 35/4 |
| 8 | 5 | 40/5 |
| 9 | 5 | 45/5 |
| 10 | 7 | 52/5 |
| 11 | 8 | 60/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 69/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 73/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 76/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 80/6 |
| 16 | 1 | 81/6 |
| 17 | 12 | 93/6 |
| 18 | 1 | 94/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 95/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 95/10 |
Delray Rawlins: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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