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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
18 Aug 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Finland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Finland started on 73%; Finland batted first.
Finland's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Luxembourg: 0% to 33%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy C. Barkercaught · Zahidullah Kamal · Amjad Sher 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zahidullah Kamal · b Amjad Sher | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| G Venkateswarancaught · AK Mohan · Junaid Khan (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AK Mohan · b Junaid Khan (2) | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Asghar Ali Khancaught · Hammadullah Shinwari · Akhil Arjunan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammadullah Shinwari · b Akhil Arjunan | 17 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 89.47 |
| SKS Gillbowled · Junaid Khan (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Khan (2) | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| William Copebowled · Madhawa Basnayaka 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Madhawa Basnayaka | 20 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 95.24 |
| V Vijhcaught · Faraaz Mehti Abbas · Madhawa Basnayaka 2 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Faraaz Mehti Abbas · b Madhawa Basnayaka |
| 14 |
| 14 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Benjamin Embletonbowled · Madhawa Basnayaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Madhawa Basnayaka | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Vivek Dixitnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 15 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Mayank Nagayachrun out · VS Padhaal, Akhil Arjunan · Akhil Arjunan 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · VS Padhaal, Akhil Arjunan | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| J Madanbowled · Madhawa Basnayaka 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Madhawa Basnayaka | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Kamal Soukhiyastumped · AK Mohan · Hammadullah Shinwari 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · AK Mohan · b Hammadullah Shinwari | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amjad Sher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 3.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Junaid Khan (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Hammadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Akhil Arjunan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Madhawa Basnayaka1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-11 (Timothy C. Barker, 2.2) · 2-17 (G Venkateswaran, 4.0) · 3-21 (SKS Gill, 5.2) · 4-42 (Asghar Ali Khan, 9.2) · 5-63 (William Cope, 12.1) · 6-63 (Benjamin Embleton, 12.3) · 7-66 (V Vijh, 14.2) · 8-76 (Mayank Nagayach, 15.4) · 9-92 (J Madan, 16.4) · 10-95 (Kamal Soukhiya, 17.2)
Recorded target: 169 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 21/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 25/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 33/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 42/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 45/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 52/4 |
| 12 | 11 | 63/4 |
| 13 | 0 | 63/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 66/6 |
| 15 | 8 | 74/7 |
| 16 | 7 | 81/8 |
| 17 | 12 | 93/9 |
| 18 | 2 | 95/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.