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Photo: Akash Guruji
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South Africa tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
30 Nov 2025 · ODI
JSCA International Stadium Complex, Ranchi · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 74%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yashasvi Jaiswalcaught · Quinton de Kock · Nandre Burger2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Quinton de Kock · b Nandre Burger | 18 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 112.50 |
 Rohit Sharmalbw · Marco Jansen5 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Marco Jansen | 57 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 111.76 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Ryan Rickelton · Nandre Burger11 fours · 7 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Nandre Burger | 135 | 120 | 11 | 7 | 112.50 |
| Ruturaj Gaikwadcaught · Dewald Brevis · Ottniel Baartman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewald Brevis · b Ottniel Baartman |
India's chances ranged from 73% to 99% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 27%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 57.14 |
 Washington Sundarcaught · Corbin Bosch · Ottniel Baartman0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Corbin Bosch · b Ottniel Baartman | 13 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 68.42 |
|---|
 KL Rahulcaught · Quinton de Kock · Marco Jansen2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Quinton de Kock · b Marco Jansen | 60 | 56 | 2 | 3 | 107.14 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejacaught · Aiden Markram · Corbin Bosch2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Corbin Bosch | 32 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Harshit Rananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Arshdeep Singhbowled · Corbin Bosch0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Corbin Bosch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Kuldeep Yadavnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 76 | 2 | 7.60 | 5 | 0 |
| Nandre Burger0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 2 | 6.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 66 | 2 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 6.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Prenelan Subrayen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 73 | 0 | 7.30 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Yashasvi Jaiswal, 3.1) · 2-161 (Rohit Sharma, 21.2) · 3-183 (Ruturaj Gaikwad, 26.3) · 4-200 (Washington Sundar, 30.3) · 5-276 (Virat Kohli, 42.5) · 6-341 (KL Rahul, 48.5) · 7-347 (Ravindra Jadeja, 49.4) · 8-347 (Arshdeep Singh, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 39/1 |
| 7 | 13 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 62/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 72/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 80/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 86/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 94/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 98/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 104/1 |
| 15 | 15 | 119/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 122/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 126/1 |
| 18 | 14 | 140/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 146/1 |
| 20 | 7 | 153/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 161/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 163/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 168/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 172/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 179/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 182/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 184/3 |
| 28 | 8 | 192/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 196/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 198/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 201/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 208/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 214/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 217/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 218/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 225/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 228/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 233/4 |
| 39 | 21 | 254/4 |
| 40 | 10 | 264/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 266/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 272/4 |
| 43 | 5 | 277/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 284/5 |
| 45 | 17 | 301/5 |
| 46 | 12 | 313/5 |
| 47 | 11 | 324/5 |
| 48 | 5 | 329/5 |
| 49 | 14 | 343/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 349/8 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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