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Photo: Akash Guruji
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
South Africa tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
30 Nov 2025 · ODI
JSCA International Stadium Complex, Ranchi · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 74%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · KL Rahul · Arshdeep Singh1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Arshdeep Singh | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 46.67 |
 Ryan Rickeltonbowled · Harshit Rana0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harshit Rana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Quinton de Kockcaught · KL Rahul · Harshit Rana0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Harshit Rana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Virat Kohli · Kuldeep Yadav 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Kuldeep Yadav | 72 |
India's chances ranged from 73% to 99% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 27%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 80 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 90.00 |
| Tony de Zorzilbw · Kuldeep Yadav 7 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 39 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 111.43 |
|---|
| Dewald Breviscaught · Ruturaj Gaikwad · Harshit Rana 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Ruturaj Gaikwad · b Harshit Rana | 37 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 132.14 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Ravindra Jadeja · Kuldeep Yadav8 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Ravindra Jadeja · b Kuldeep Yadav | 70 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 179.49 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschcaught · Rohit Sharma · Prasidh Krishna 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Prasidh Krishna | 67 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 131.37 |
|---|
| Prenelan Subrayencaught · KL Rahul · Kuldeep Yadav 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Kuldeep Yadav | 17 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 106.25 |
|---|
| Nandre Burgercaught · KL Rahul · Arshdeep Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Arshdeep Singh | 17 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 73.91 |
|---|
| Ottniel Baartmannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 64 | 2 | 6.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 3 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 6.55 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 4 | 6.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Ryan Rickelton, 1.1) · 2-7 (Quinton de Kock, 1.3) · 3-11 (Aiden Markram, 4.4) · 4-77 (Tony de Zorzi, 15.0) · 5-130 (Dewald Brevis, 21.4) · 6-227 (Marco Jansen, 33.1) · 7-228 (Matthew Breetzke, 33.3) · 8-270 (Prenelan Subrayen, 39.3) · 9-312 (Nandre Burger, 46.1) · 10-332 (Corbin Bosch, 49.2)
Recorded target: 350 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 11/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 15/3 |
| 6 | 9 | 24/3 |
| 7 | 12 | 36/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 43/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 47/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 47/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 58/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 65/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 73/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 77/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 86/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 94/4 |
| 18 | 14 | 108/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 112/4 |
| 20 | 11 | 123/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 130/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 134/5 |
| 23 | 5 | 139/5 |
| 24 | 8 | 147/5 |
| 25 | 15 | 162/5 |
| 26 | 15 | 177/5 |
| 27 | 8 | 185/5 |
| 28 | 5 | 190/5 |
| 29 | 8 | 198/5 |
| 30 | 8 | 206/5 |
| 31 | 10 | 216/5 |
| 32 | 7 | 223/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 227/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 230/7 |
| 35 | 6 | 236/7 |
| 36 | 6 | 242/7 |
| 37 | 6 | 248/7 |
| 38 | 9 | 257/7 |
| 39 | 6 | 263/7 |
| 40 | 7 | 270/8 |
| 41 | 4 | 274/8 |
| 42 | 4 | 278/8 |
| 43 | 11 | 289/8 |
| 44 | 11 | 300/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 307/8 |
| 46 | 5 | 312/8 |
| 47 | 0 | 312/9 |
| 48 | 11 | 323/9 |
| 49 | 9 | 332/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 332/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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