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Pakistan T20I Tri-Series · 2025/26 · Men
23 Nov 2025 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 70%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettbowled · Mohammad Wasim 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Wasim | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · Sahibzada Farhan · Naseem Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahibzada Farhan · b Naseem Shah | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Brendan Taylorcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Fahim Ashraf2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Fahim Ashraf | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Fahim Ashraf · Mohammad Nawaz2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Mohammad Nawaz | 23 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 127.78 |
| not out |
| 67* |
| 49 |
| 8 |
| 2 |
| 136.73 |
| Tony Munyongacaught · Naseem Shah · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Naseem Shah · b Usman Tariq | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Tashinga Musekiwabowled · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Usman Tariq | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Wellington Masakadzacaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Usman Tariq | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Brad Evansbowled · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Nawaz | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Tinotenda Maposabowled · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Usman Tariq | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravarun out · Usman Khan · Mohammad Wasim 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Usman Khan | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 1 |
| Mohammad Wasim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Usman Tariq1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 1.0) · 2-14 (Brian Bennett, 1.4) · 3-25 (Brendan Taylor, 3.3) · 4-59 (Sikandar Raza, 8.1) · 5-60 (Tony Munyonga, 9.2) · 6-60 (Tashinga Musekiwa, 9.3) · 7-60 (Wellington Masakadza, 9.4) · 8-63 (Brad Evans, 11.0) · 9-82 (Tinotenda Maposa, 14.0) · 10-126 (Richard Ngarava, 19.0)
Recorded target: 196 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/2 |
| 3 | 8 | 24/2 |
| 4 | 10 | 34/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 36/3 |
| 6 | 7 | 43/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 50/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 59/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 10 | 0 | 60/7 |
| 11 | 3 | 63/8 |
| 12 | 8 | 71/8 |
| 13 | 10 | 81/8 |
| 14 | 1 | 82/9 |
| 15 | 8 | 90/9 |
| 16 | 9 | 99/9 |
| 17 | 9 | 108/9 |
| 18 | 13 | 121/9 |
| 19 | 5 | 126/10 |
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
