MI New YorkversusSan Francisco Unicorns

5 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 5 wickets

MI New York20.0 overs104/10 San Francisco Unicorns16.5 overs105/5 Knight Riders Cricket Ground, Pomona ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

MI New York started on 47%; MI New York batted first.

MI New York’s chance of winning (%) · San Francisco Unicorns is the rest

MI New York's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (San Francisco Unicorns: 51% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: XC Bartlett to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 51% to 65%.
1.6: BL Couch to MD Patel, MD Patel out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 52% to 64%.
5.1: BL Couch to Shakib Al Hasan, Shakib Al Hasan out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 68% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.