**Headingley**
Photo: Mtaylor848
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

Birmingham BearsversusYorkshire

5 Jul 2024 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 4 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs214/7 Yorkshire20.0 overs210/5 Headingley ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 57%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Yorkshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 10% to 86% during the match (Yorkshire: 14% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.6: JB Lintott to D Ferreira, six by D Ferreira. Yorkshire up from 49% to 66%.
2nd inns 17.3: ZGF Foulkes to D Ferreira, six by D Ferreira. Yorkshire up from 55% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.6: GHS Garton to Shan Masood, 1 run to Shan Masood. Birmingham Bears up from 78% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Birmingham Bears chose to bat
match referees: JJ Whitaker
umpires: PJ Hartley, Surendiran Shanmugam

Match history & source

On 5 Jul 2024, Birmingham Bears played Yorkshire at Headingley. Recorded result: Birmingham Bears won by 4 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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