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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
17 Apr 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 73%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassancaught · Josh Clarkson · William O’Rourke 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Josh Clarkson · b William O’Rourke | 57 | 76 | 8 | 1 | 75.00 |
| Tanzid Hasanbowled · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Smith | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantobowled · Nathan Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Litton Dasbowled · Dean Foxcroft3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dean Foxcroft | 46 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 67.65 |
 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 1% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Henry Nicholls · b Nathan Smith |
| 55 |
| 60 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 91.67 |
| Afif Hossaincaught · William O’Rourke · Jayden Lennox 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · William O’Rourke · b Jayden Lennox | 27 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 55.10 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Tom Latham · Blair Tickner0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Blair Tickner | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught and bowled · Blair Tickner0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Blair Tickner | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
 Shariful Islambowled · Blair Tickner0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Blair Tickner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedbowled · Blair Tickner0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Blair Tickner | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Nahid Rananot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 20 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 12 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 5.67 | 12 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith1 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.3 | 1 | 45 | 3 | 4.74 | 2 | 1 |
 Blair Tickner0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 4 | 4.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Clarkson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Jayden Lennox0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Foxcroft0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 4.17 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Tanzid Hasan, 3.1) · 2-21 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 3.2) · 3-114 (Saif Hassan, 22.3) · 4-132 (Litton Das, 27.2) · 5-184 (Afif Hossain, 40.3) · 6-194 (Mehedi Hasan, 43.4) · 7-202 (Rishad Hossain, 45.5) · 8-203 (Shariful Islam, 46.0) · 9-214 (Taskin Ahmed, 47.3) · 10-221 (Tawhid Hridoy, 48.3)
Recorded target: 248 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 45/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 49/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 50/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 51/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 55/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 57/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 62/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 66/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 70/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 84/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 87/2 |
| 19 | 14 | 101/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 105/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 106/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 114/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 115/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 121/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 124/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 125/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 131/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 135/4 |
| 29 | 0 | 135/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 137/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 139/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 143/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 146/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 153/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 155/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 158/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 162/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 168/4 |
| 39 | 9 | 177/4 |
| 40 | 4 | 181/4 |
| 41 | 3 | 184/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 189/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 192/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 195/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 200/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 203/8 |
| 47 | 10 | 213/8 |
| 48 | 2 | 215/9 |
| 49 | 6 | 221/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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