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Pakistan tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
19 Dec 2024 · ODI
Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 39%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saim Ayubcaught · HE van der Dussen · Kwena Maphaka 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HE van der Dussen · b Kwena Maphaka | 25 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 80.65 |
 Abdullah Shafiquecaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Aiden Markram · Andile Phehlukwayo7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Andile Phehlukwayo | 73 | 95 | 7 | 0 | 76.84 |
 Mohammad Rizwancaught and bowled · Kwena Maphaka7 fours · 3 sixes |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 74%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 80 |
| 82 |
| 7 |
| 3 |
| 97.56 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · David Miller · Bjorn Fortuin 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · David Miller · b Bjorn Fortuin | 33 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Kamran Ghulamcaught · Aiden Markram · Kwena Maphaka 4 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Kwena Maphaka | 63 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 196.88 |
|---|
| Irfan Khancaught · David Miller · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · David Miller · b Marco Jansen | 15 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 93.75 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridicaught · RD Rickelton · Marco Jansen2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · RD Rickelton · b Marco Jansen | 16 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 177.78 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
 Haris Raufcaught · RD Rickelton · Kwena Maphaka0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · RD Rickelton · b Kwena Maphaka | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 300.00 |
|---|
 Abrar Ahmedrun out · Heinrich Klaasen, Kwena Maphaka · Kwena Maphaka1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Heinrich Klaasen, Kwena Maphaka | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marco Jansen1 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 71 | 3 | 7.10 | 1 | 2 |
| Kwena Maphaka1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 72 | 4 | 7.32 | 4 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Andile Phehlukwayo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 6.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Tabraiz Shamsi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 7.13 | 1 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-5 (Abdullah Shafique, 0.4) · 2-53 (Saim Ayub, 9.3) · 3-168 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 33.0) · 4-192 (Mohammad Rizwan, 36.0) · 5-242 (Salman Ali Agha, 42.1) · 6-291 (Irfan Khan, 46.3) · 7-317 (Shaheen Afridi, 49.0) · 8-317 (Kamran Ghulam, 49.1) · 9-323 (Haris Rauf, 49.3) · 10-329 (Abrar Ahmed, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 28/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 45/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 53/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 53/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 58/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 68/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 72/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 77/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 83/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 86/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 89/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 91/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 93/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 101/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 104/2 |
| 25 | 10 | 114/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 121/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 121/2 |
| 28 | 9 | 130/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 136/2 |
| 30 | 11 | 147/2 |
| 31 | 10 | 157/2 |
| 32 | 3 | 160/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 168/3 |
| 34 | 14 | 182/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 184/3 |
| 36 | 8 | 192/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 195/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 201/4 |
| 39 | 12 | 213/4 |
| 40 | 11 | 224/4 |
| 41 | 10 | 234/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 242/4 |
| 43 | 1 | 243/5 |
| 44 | 14 | 257/5 |
| 45 | 9 | 266/5 |
| 46 | 14 | 280/5 |
| 47 | 13 | 293/6 |
| 48 | 15 | 308/6 |
| 49 | 9 | 317/7 |
| 50 | 12 | 329/10 |
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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