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Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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Resized to at most 1600px wide and converted to WebP. Display crops vary; source photographs are historical.
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Pakistan tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
19 Dec 2024 · ODI
Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 39%; Pakistan batted first.
On 19 Dec 2024, Pakistan played South Africa at Newlands, Cape Town. Recorded result: Pakistan won by 81 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 74%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.