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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
11 Oct 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 76%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alice Capsey · b Sophie Ecclestone | 35 | 60 | 3 | 0 | 58.33 |
2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 15 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 38.46 |
| Vishmi Gunaratnebowled · Charlie Dean 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charlie Dean | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 111.11 |
5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lauren Bell · b Sophie Ecclestone |
England's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 37 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 89.19 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 26.67 |
|---|
2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Heather Knight · b Alice Capsey | 23 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 60.53 |
|---|
1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Dewmi Vihangacaught · Charlie Dean · Nat Sciver-Brunt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Dean · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charlie Dean | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · b Linsey Smith | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Inoka Ranaweeranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 15 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 18 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 4.00 | 4 | 0 | |
| Linsey Smith1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 2.54 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 | |
| 9.0 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 5.22 | 10 | 0 | |
| 5.0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10.0 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 1.70 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 9.1) · 2-95 (Hasini Perera, 20.1) · 3-98 (Harshitha Madavi, 22.3) · 4-103 (Kavisha Dilhari, 24.5) · 5-116 (Chamari Atapattu, 29.0) · 6-134 (Anushka Sanjeewani, 33.3) · 7-145 (Dewmi Vihanga, 37.4) · 8-157 (Nilakshi de Silva, 40.0) · 9-157 (Sugandika Kumari, 40.1) · 10-164 (Udeshika Prabodhani, 45.4)
Recorded target: 254 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 26/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 29/0 |
| 9 | 8 | 37/0 |
| 10 | 0 | 37/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 49/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 51/1 |
| 14 | 11 | 62/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 68/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 76/1 |
| 18 | 13 | 89/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 91/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 95/1 |
| 21 | 0 | 95/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 98/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 98/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 101/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 103/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 109/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 109/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 115/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 116/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 119/5 |
| 31 | 1 | 120/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 125/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 132/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 136/6 |
| 35 | 3 | 139/6 |
| 36 | 3 | 142/6 |
| 37 | 1 | 143/6 |
| 38 | 3 | 146/7 |
| 39 | 6 | 152/7 |
| 40 | 5 | 157/8 |
| 41 | 2 | 159/9 |
| 42 | 0 | 159/9 |
| 43 | 3 | 162/9 |
| 44 | 0 | 162/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 163/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 164/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.