Mumbai IndiansversusDelhi Capitals

15 Mar 2025 · T20

Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Mumbai Indians won by 8 runs

Mumbai Indians20.0 overs149/7 Delhi Capitals20.0 overs141/9 Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mumbai Indians started on 52%; Mumbai Indians batted first.

Mumbai Indians’s chance of winning (%) · Delhi Capitals is the rest

Mumbai Indians's chances ranged from 23% to 99% during the match (Delhi Capitals: 2% to 77%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.4: AC Kerr to JI Rodrigues, JI Rodrigues out. Mumbai Indians up from 65% to 85%.
2nd inns 12.5: NR Sciver-Brunt to M Kapp, SJ Bryce out. Mumbai Indians up from 72% to 89%.
2nd inns 17.4: NR Sciver-Brunt to M Kapp, M Kapp out. Mumbai Indians up from 65% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.