GreeceversusBulgaria

Greece more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Greece rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,218 vs 1,162 on our results rating)
• Bulgaria are playing at home in Bulgaria
• In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Greece won 1 and Bulgaria won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Greece started on 56%; Greece batted first.

Greece's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

1. 1.3: T Dissanayake to A Makri, 0 runs to A Makri. Greece up from 58% to 63%.
2. 2.5: B Shotorova to A Argyropoulou, four by A Argyropoulou. Greece up from 64% to 69%.
3. 2nd inns 13.2: S Georgota to T Dissanayake, four by T Dissanayake. Bulgaria up from 14% to 19%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.