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Photo: John Sutton
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Women · 2026 · Women
10 Jul 2026 · T20
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photographRecorded result
Essex started on 33%; Essex batted first.
Essex's chances ranged from 34% to 99% during the match (Durham: 1% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 10 Jul 2026, Essex played Durham at Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street. Recorded result: Essex won by 12 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.