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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
22 Feb 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 29%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Alex Carey · Ben Dwarshuis1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Ben Dwarshuis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 166.67 |
 Ben Duckettlbw · Marnus Labuschagne17 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Marnus Labuschagne | 165 | 143 | 17 | 3 | 115.38 |
 Jamie Smithcaught · Alex Carey · Ben Dwarshuis3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Ben Dwarshuis | 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 115.38 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Adam Zampa4 fours · 0 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 87% during the match (Australia: 13% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Adam Zampa |
| 68 |
| 78 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 87.18 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Alex Carey · Adam Zampa0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Adam Zampa | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Jos Buttlercaught · Nathan Ellis · Glenn Maxwell1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nathan Ellis · b Glenn Maxwell | 23 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 109.52 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonecaught · Nathan Ellis · Ben Dwarshuis 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nathan Ellis · b Ben Dwarshuis | 14 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 82.35 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught and bowled · Marnus Labuschagne0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Marnus Labuschagne | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Jofra Archernot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 21* | 10 | 2 | 1 | 210.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 11 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 7.71 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Dwarshuis0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 66 | 3 | 6.60 | 7 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 5.10 | 3 | 0 |
 Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 8.29 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 2 | 6.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 8.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Philip Salt, 1.4) · 2-43 (Jamie Smith, 5.2) · 3-201 (Joe Root, 31.0) · 4-219 (Harry Brook, 34.1) · 5-280 (Jos Buttler, 41.0) · 6-316 (Liam Livingstone, 46.4) · 7-322 (Ben Duckett, 47.2) · 8-338 (Brydon Carse, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 32/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 42/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 46/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 55/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 60/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 64/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 73/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 80/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 87/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 91/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 102/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 108/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 113/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 116/2 |
| 18 | 10 | 126/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 129/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 132/2 |
| 21 | 11 | 143/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 150/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 154/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 159/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 166/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 171/2 |
| 27 | 8 | 179/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 183/2 |
| 29 | 8 | 191/2 |
| 30 | 9 | 200/2 |
| 31 | 1 | 201/3 |
| 32 | 9 | 210/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 216/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 219/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 224/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 228/4 |
| 37 | 13 | 241/4 |
| 38 | 7 | 248/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 258/4 |
| 40 | 10 | 268/4 |
| 41 | 12 | 280/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 285/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 289/5 |
| 44 | 10 | 299/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 303/5 |
| 46 | 8 | 311/5 |
| 47 | 10 | 321/6 |
| 48 | 4 | 325/7 |
| 49 | 11 | 336/7 |
| 50 | 15 | 351/8 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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