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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier B · 2025/26 · Men
25 Mar 2026 · T20
Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photographRecorded result
Ghana more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malawi started on 36%; Malawi batted first.
Malawi's chances ranged from 7% to 88% during the match (Ghana: 12% to 93%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Choambacaught · Isaac Aboagye · Nitesh Hooda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Aboagye · b Nitesh Hooda | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| G Kansonkhobowled · Vincent Ateak 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vincent Ateak | 19 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 73.08 |
| D Kansonkhorun out · Frank Baleri, P Yevugah · Obed Agbomadzie 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Frank Baleri, P Yevugah | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 109.09 |
| Sami Sohailbowled · Obed Agbomadzie 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Obed Agbomadzie | 24 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Kazim Somanirun out · Isaac Aboagye, Lee Nyarko · Lee Nyarko 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Isaac Aboagye, Lee Nyarko | 15 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 78.95 |
| caught and bowled · b Obed Agbomadzie |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Daniel Jackielnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 18 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| SZ Vayanibowled · Nitesh Hooda 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nitesh Hooda | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| B Balalastumped · Frank Baleri · Nitesh Hooda 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Frank Baleri · b Nitesh Hooda | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| B Pondaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Nyarko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nitesh Hooda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Obed Agbomadzie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Aboagye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Ateak0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (M Choamba, 3.4) · 2-27 (D Kansonkho, 6.5) · 3-52 (G Kansonkho, 10.5) · 4-64 (Sami Sohail, 13.1) · 5-66 (A Limdawala, 13.4) · 6-84 (Kazim Somani, 16.5) · 7-94 (SZ Vayani, 19.1) · 8-94 (B Balala, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 31/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 47/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 52/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 59/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 64/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 66/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 69/5 |
| 16 | 10 | 79/5 |
| 17 | 6 | 85/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 90/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 94/6 |
| 20 | 4 | 98/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.