IndiaversusSri Lanka

28 Dec 2025 · T20

Greenfield International Stadium, Thiruvananthapuram · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 30 runs

India20.0 overs221/2 Sri Lanka20.0 overs191/6 Greenfield International Stadium, Thiruvananthapuram ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

85%India15%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,666 vs 1,493 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 83%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

India's chances ranged from 83% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 17%).

Biggest swings

0.1: M Shehani to S Mandhana, four by S Mandhana. India up from 83% to 85%.
2nd inns 5.3: A Reddy to GWHM Perera, GWHM Perera out. India up from 94% to 96%.
2nd inns 12.5: Vaishnavi Sharma to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. India up from 95% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India221/2 Sri Lanka191/6

Innings 1

India

221/220.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Imesha Dulani · Malsha Shehani 11 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Imesha Dulani · b Malsha Shehani	80	48	11	3	166.67
Shafali Vermacaught and bowled · NM Meepage 12 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b NM Meepage	79	46	12	1	171.74
Richa Ghoshnot out 4 fours · 3 sixes	not out	40*	16	4	3	250.00
Harmanpreet Kaurnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Malsha Shehani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	0
Kawya Kavindi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	0	10.75	2
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	0	11.75	0
Rashmika Sewwandi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	30	0	15.00	0
NM Meepage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	6	16/0
3	10	26/0
4	14	40/0
5	9	49/0
6	12	61/0
7	3	64/0
8	4	68/0
9	7	75/0
10	10	85/0
11	15	100/0
12	20	120/0
13	18	138/0
14	11	149/0
15	9	158/0
16	10	168/1
17	4	172/2
18	12	184/2
19	23	207/2
20	14	221/2

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