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ICC Women's T20 World Cup · 2026 · Women
19 Jun 2026 · T20
The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 49%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 10% to 78% during the match (Ireland: 22% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Hunterbowled · Bree Illing 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Bree Illing | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · Suzie Bates · Rosemary Mair 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Rosemary Mair | 58 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 109.43 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Maddy Green · Amelia Kerr 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Maddy Green · b Amelia Kerr | 59 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 111.32 |
| Rebecca Stokellcaught · Jess Kerr · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jess Kerr · b Amelia Kerr | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Louise Littlenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
| not out |
| 8* |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 160.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Bree Illing0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Nensi Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Suzie Bates0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Amy Hunter, 1.5) · 2-116 (Orla Prendergast, 17.4) · 3-116 (Rebecca Stokell, 18.0) · 4-123 (Gaby Lewis, 18.4)
Recorded target: 141 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 46/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 51/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 57/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 66/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 13 | 13 | 82/1 |
| 14 | 9 | 91/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 97/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 107/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 112/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 116/3 |
| 19 | 10 | 126/4 |
| 20 | 10 | 136/4 |
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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