New ZealandversusSri Lanka

25 Feb 2026 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 61 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs168/7 Sri Lanka20.0 overs107/8 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

62%New Zealand38%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,667 vs 1,575 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Sri Lanka won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 59%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

11.4: M Theekshana to MS Chapman, MS Chapman out. Sri Lanka up from 47% to 58%.
12.1: DN Wellalage to DJ Mitchell, DJ Mitchell out. Sri Lanka up from 59% to 69%.
2nd inns 0.1: MJ Henry to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. New Zealand up from 68% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand168/7 Sri Lanka107/8

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

107/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Pathum Nissankabowled · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Matt Henry	0	1	0	0.00
Kusal Mendisstumped · Tim Seifert · Rachin Ravindra 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Tim Seifert · b Rachin Ravindra	11	22	1	50.00
Charith Asalankacaught · Daryl Mitchell · Matt Henry 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Matt Henry	5	9	1	55.56
Pavan Rathnayakestumped · Tim Seifert · Rachin Ravindra 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Tim Seifert · b Rachin Ravindra	10	18	0	55.56
Kamindu Mendiscaught · Glenn Phillips · Mitchell Santner 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Glenn Phillips · b Mitchell Santner	31	23	4	134.78

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matt Henry1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	3	2	1.50	0
Cole McConchie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	20	0	6.67	1
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	1	4.75	0
Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	2	0	2.00	0
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	0	6.50	0
Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	4	6.75	4
Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	1	5.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	6	6/1
3	3	9/2
4	2	11/2
5	6	17/2
6	3	20/2
7	3	23/2
8	4	27/2
9	9	36/4
10	9	45/4
11	2	47/5
12	12	59/5
13	8	67/6
14	4	71/6
15	6	77/7
16	10	87/7
17	8	95/7
18	5	100/7
19	4	104/7
20	3	107/8

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