SurreyversusWarwickshire

18 Jul 2025 · T20

The Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Surrey won by 25 runs

Surrey20.0 overs204/5 Warwickshire20.0 overs179/9 The Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Surrey started on 57%; Surrey batted first.

Surrey’s chance of winning (%) · Warwickshire is the rest

Surrey's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Warwickshire: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

0.6: IECM Wong to BF Smith, four by BF Smith. Surrey up from 56% to 60%.
2.5: A Surenkumar to BF Smith, BF Smith out. Warwickshire up from 30% to 38%.
2nd inns 15.2: D Gregory to NAJ Wraith, NAJ Wraith out. Surrey up from 93% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.