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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Men
23 Feb 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 34%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 2% to 73% during the match (Zimbabwe: 27% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paul Stirlingcaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Richard Ngarava0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Richard Ngarava | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · Brian Bennett · Trevor Gwandu 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Trevor Gwandu | 46 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 115.00 |
 Harry Tectorcaught · Wesley Madhevere · Sikandar Raza4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wesley Madhevere · b Sikandar Raza | 28 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 140.00 |
| Curtis Camphercaught · Brian Bennett · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Sikandar Raza | 26 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 104.00 |
| Neil Rockcaught · Ryan Burl · Trevor Gwandu 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Ryan Burl · b Trevor Gwandu |
| 8 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 61.54 |
 George Dockrellbowled · Trevor Gwandu2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Trevor Gwandu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
|---|
| Gareth Delanycaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Blessing Muzarabani | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Graham Humelbw · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Richard Ngarava | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Craig Youngnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Joshua Littlenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Paul Stirling, 1.0) · 2-59 (Harry Tector, 7.3) · 3-99 (Lorcan Tucker, 13.2) · 4-108 (Curtis Campher, 15.5) · 5-122 (George Dockrell, 17.2) · 6-123 (Neil Rock, 18.0) · 7-125 (Gareth Delany, 18.4) · 8-135 (Graham Hume, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 12 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 15 | 34/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 51/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 57/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 61/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 69/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 75/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 84/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 92/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 98/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 102/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 108/4 |
| 17 | 13 | 121/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 123/6 |
| 19 | 7 | 130/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 137/8 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
