BangladeshversusUnited States of America

21 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

United States of America won by 5 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs153/6 United States of America19.3 overs156/5 Prairie View Cricket Complex, Houston ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Bangladesh51%United States of America

Why

United States of America are playing at home in the United States
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than United States of America (1,600 vs 1,568 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 46%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · United States of America is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 3% to 90% during the match (United States of America: 11% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: Shoriful Islam to Harmeet Singh, four by Harmeet Singh. United States of America up from 28% to 53%.
2nd inns 18.5: Mustafizur Rahman to CJ Anderson, six by CJ Anderson. United States of America up from 50% to 79%.
2nd inns 19.1: Mahmudullah to CJ Anderson, six by CJ Anderson. United States of America up from 72% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh153/6 United States of America156/5

Innings 1

Bangladesh

153/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Litton Daslbw · Jasdeep Singh 1 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Jasdeep Singh	14	15	1	1	93.33
Soumya Sarkarcaught · Nitish Kumar · Steven Taylor 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nitish Kumar · b Steven Taylor	20	13	3	0	153.85
Najmul Hossain Shantostumped · Monank Patel · Steven Taylor 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Monank Patel · b Steven Taylor	3	11	0	0	27.27
Tawhid Hridoy

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Saurabh Netravalkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	1	6.75	0	0
Ali Khan0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	49	1	12.25	4	1
Jasdeep Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	1	30	1	10.00	0	2
Steven Taylor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	2	3.00	0	0
Corey Anderson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0	0
Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	0	27	0	6.75	2	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/0
3	13	24/0
4	10	34/0
5	0	34/1
6	3	37/2
7	14	51/2
8	1	52/3
9	8	60/3
10	5	65/3
11	2	67/3
12	4	71/4
13	16	87/4
14	9	96/4
15	6	102/4
16	10	112/4
17	15	127/4
18	5	132/4
19	4	136/5
20	17	153/6

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