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Photo: Mat Fascione
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Ireland Women tour of England · 2026 · Women
1 Sept 2026 · ODI
Grace Road, Leicester · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 11%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maia Bouchiercaught · Orla Prendergast · Arlene Kelly 11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Arlene Kelly | 104 | 95 | 11 | 0 | 109.47 |
 Sophia Dunkleycaught and bowled · Cara Murray13 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Cara Murray | 73 | 61 | 13 | 0 | 119.67 |
| Jodi Grewcockbowled · Cara Murray 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cara Murray | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
 Alice Capseynot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 41* | 40 | 4 | 1 | 102.50 |
| Freya Kempcaught · A Tector · Cara Murray7 fours · 0 sixes |
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (England: 63% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · A Tector · b Cara Murray |
| 36 |
| 22 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 163.64 |
 Danielle Gibsonnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast2 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.83 | 5 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| KJ McCartney0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 7.83 | 4 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 58 | 3 | 6.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Louise Little0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.1 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 8.13 | 1 | 0 |
1-143 (Sophia Dunkley, 19.4) · 2-173 (Jodi Grewcock, 23.3) · 3-223 (Maia Bouchier, 31.2) · 4-277 (Freya Kemp, 37.4)
Recorded target: 282 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 16 | 39/0 |
| 7 | 12 | 51/0 |
| 8 | 11 | 62/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 68/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 72/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 77/0 |
| 12 | 9 | 86/0 |
| 13 | 10 | 96/0 |
| 14 | 3 | 99/0 |
| 15 | 8 | 107/0 |
| 16 | 6 | 113/0 |
| 17 | 12 | 125/0 |
| 18 | 10 | 135/0 |
| 19 | 7 | 142/0 |
| 20 | 2 | 144/1 |
| 21 | 13 | 157/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 163/1 |
| 23 | 9 | 172/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 176/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 182/2 |
| 26 | 9 | 191/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 200/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 208/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 215/2 |
| 30 | 1 | 216/2 |
| 31 | 7 | 223/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 228/3 |
| 33 | 11 | 239/3 |
| 34 | 16 | 255/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 257/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 260/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 269/3 |
| 38 | 10 | 279/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 283/4 |
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Gibson: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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