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Pakistan Women tour of Sri Lanka · 2026 · Women
28 Jul 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 41%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Sri Lanka: 53% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadaf Shamascaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Chethana Vimukthi 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Chethana Vimukthi | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Gull Ferozalbw · Chamari Atapattu 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 40 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 114.29 |
| Sidra Ameencaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Chethana Vimukthi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Chethana Vimukthi | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ayesha Zafarlbw · Chethana Vimukthi 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chethana Vimukthi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Muneeba Alicaught · Hasini Perera · Inoka Ranaweera 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hasini Perera · b Inoka Ranaweera | 34 | 71 | 3 | 0 | 47.89 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Najiha Alvicaught and bowled · Chamari Atapattu 4 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught and bowled · b Chamari Atapattu |
| 30 |
| 39 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 76.92 |
| Fatima Sanacaught · Rashmika Sewwandi · Kavisha Dilhari 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rashmika Sewwandi · b Kavisha Dilhari | 41 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 83.67 |
|---|
| Umm-e-Hanicaught · Hasini Perera · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hasini Perera · b Chamari Atapattu | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Syeda Aroob Shahcaught · Hasini Perera · Kavisha Dilhari 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hasini Perera · b Kavisha Dilhari | 8 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 47.06 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhubowled · Kavisha Dilhari 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kavisha Dilhari | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Tasmia Rubabnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashmika Sewwandi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 6.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Chethana Vimukthi1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 36 | 3 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Dewmi Vihanga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 4.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 5.13 | 2 | 1 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 3.86 | 2 | 0 |
1-10 (Sadaf Shamas, 1.1) · 2-10 (Sidra Ameen, 1.4) · 3-10 (Ayesha Zafar, 1.5) · 4-78 (Gull Feroza, 15.3) · 5-110 (Muneeba Ali, 24.3) · 6-140 (Najiha Alvi, 28.2) · 7-146 (Umm-e-Hani, 30.5) · 8-180 (Syeda Aroob Shah, 37.5) · 9-186 (Nashra Sandhu, 39.4) · 10-187 (Fatima Sana, 40.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 10/3 |
| 3 | 7 | 17/3 |
| 4 | 4 | 21/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 23/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 28/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 33/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 38/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 45/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 51/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 52/3 |
| 12 | 9 | 61/3 |
| 13 | 10 | 71/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 73/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 76/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 79/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 82/4 |
| 18 | 10 | 92/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 94/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 97/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 101/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 105/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 109/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 113/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 116/5 |
| 27 | 13 | 129/5 |
| 28 | 8 | 137/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 141/6 |
| 30 | 4 | 145/6 |
| 31 | 5 | 150/7 |
| 32 | 3 | 153/7 |
| 33 | 2 | 155/7 |
| 34 | 4 | 159/7 |
| 35 | 2 | 161/7 |
| 36 | 10 | 171/7 |
| 37 | 7 | 178/7 |
| 38 | 2 | 180/8 |
| 39 | 2 | 182/8 |
| 40 | 5 | 187/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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