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Pakistan Women tour of Sri Lanka · 2026 · Women
28 Jul 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 41%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Sri Lanka: 53% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Najiha Alvi · Fatima Sana 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Najiha Alvi · b Fatima Sana | 12 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 70.59 |
 Chamari Atapattucaught · Nashra Sandhu · Umm-e-Hani7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Umm-e-Hani | 52 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 136.84 |
 Harshitha Madavinot out11 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 71* | 92 | 11 | 0 | 77.17 |
 Hasini Pereranot out8 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 50* | 77 | 8 | 0 | 64.94 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatima Sana2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Tasmia Rubab0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Umm-e-Hani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 2.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Syeda Aroob Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Ayesha Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.2 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.31 | 0 | 0 |
1-46 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 6.3) · 2-85 (Chamari Atapattu, 14.3)
Recorded target: 188 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 20 | 46/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 46/1 |
| 8 | 14 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 60/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 70/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 71/1 |
| 13 | 11 | 82/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 85/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 85/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 86/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 91/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 95/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 98/2 |
| 20 | 0 | 98/2 |
| 21 | 10 | 108/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 111/2 |
| 23 | 11 | 122/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 123/2 |
| 25 | 8 | 131/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 136/2 |
| 27 | 4 | 140/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 141/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 146/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 150/2 |
| 31 | 7 | 157/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 161/2 |
| 33 | 5 | 166/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 171/2 |
| 35 | 2 | 173/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 179/2 |
| 37 | 8 | 187/2 |
| 38 | 4 | 191/2 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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