**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

IndiaversusSri Lanka

13 Sept 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 72 runs

India20.0 overs183/5 Sri Lanka20.0 overs111/10 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

64%India36%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Sri Lanka won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than India (1,707 vs 1,705 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 64%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

India's chances ranged from 65% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 36%).

Biggest swings

0.1: M Ayodhya to S Mandhana, four by S Mandhana. India up from 65% to 68%.
1.1: WK Dilhari to S Mandhana, four by S Mandhana. India up from 66% to 70%.
1.3: WK Dilhari to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 70% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India183/5 Sri Lanka111/10

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

111/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Imesha Dulanibowled · Kranti Goud 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kranti Goud	4	4	1	0	100.00
Chamari Atapattustumped · Richa Ghosh · Deepti Sharma 4 fours · 2 sixes	stumped · Richa Ghosh · b Deepti Sharma	36	32	4	2	112.50
Vishmi Gunaratnebowled · Deepti Sharma 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Deepti Sharma	20	22	2	0	90.91
Harshitha Madavicaught and bowled · Shree Charani 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Shree Charani	9	14	1	0	64.29

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Kranti Goud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	1	4.00
Nandani Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	0	5.67
Shafali Verma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	1	5.75
Shree Charani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	4	5.00
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	3	4.75
Prema Rawat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	1	7.33

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	6	12/1
3	2	14/1
4	7	21/1
5	12	33/1
6	5	38/1
7	6	44/1
8	6	50/1
9	11	61/1
10	2	63/3
11	6	69/3
12	7	76/3
13	3	79/3
14	11	90/4
15	8	98/4
16	4	102/6
17	2	104/7
18	0	104/8
19	3	107/9
20	4	111/10

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