Papua New GuineaversusThailand

Thailand more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Papua New Guinea (1,682 vs 1,540 on our results rating)
• Thailand are playing at home in Thailand
• In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 2 and Papua New Guinea won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 22%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 5% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 95%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 3.3: GP Tom to N Koncharoenkai, N Koncharoenkai out. Papua New Guinea up from 19% to 29%.
2. 2nd inns 6.3: P Siaka to N Boochatham, N Boochatham out. Papua New Guinea up from 29% to 42%.
3. 2nd inns 12.3: P Siaka to N Chantam, N Chantam out. Papua New Guinea up from 47% to 60%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.