Lahore QalandarsversusIslamabad United

11 Apr 2025 · T20

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Islamabad United won by 8 wickets

Lahore Qalandars19.2 overs139/10 Islamabad United17.4 overs143/2 Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lahore Qalandars started on 39%; Lahore Qalandars batted first.

Lahore Qalandars’s chance of winning (%) · Islamabad United is the rest

Lahore Qalandars's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Islamabad United: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: RP Meredith to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. Islamabad United up from 65% to 75%.
4.3: JO Holder to Muhammad Naeem, Muhammad Naeem out. Islamabad United up from 64% to 74%.
8.5: Shadab Khan to SW Billings, SW Billings out. Islamabad United up from 76% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.