Continental Cup · 2024 · Men

RomaniaversusBulgaria

26 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Romania won by 74 runs

Romania20.0 overs192/6 Bulgaria19.5 overs118/10 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Romania more likely to win

75%Romania25%Bulgaria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Romania rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,416 vs 1,341 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Romania won 5 and Bulgaria won 1
Romania are playing at home in Romania

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Romania started on 73%; Romania batted first.

Romania’s chance of winning (%) · Bulgaria is the rest

Romania's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Danyal Raja to Taranjeet Singh, six by Taranjeet Singh. Romania up from 72% to 77%.
7.2: Isa Zaroo to A Rajshekara, A Rajshekara out. Bulgaria up from 8% to 12%.
2nd inns 0.1: M Koli to D Nikolov, D Nikolov out. Romania up from 90% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Romania192/6 Bulgaria118/10

Innings 2

Bulgaria

118/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bulgaria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
D Nikolovcaught and bowled · M Koli 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b M Koli	0	1	0	0	0.00
Isa Zaroolbw · Ijaz Hussain 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ijaz Hussain	20	29	2	0	68.97
Manan Bashircaught · V Saini · R Athapaththu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · V Saini · b R Athapaththu	1	5	0	0	20.00
M Gogevlbw · R Athapaththu 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b R Athapaththu	0	2	0	0	0.00
Firas Hussaincaught · KA Vimlesh · R Athapaththu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · KA Vimlesh · b R Athapaththu	0	2	0	0	0.00
Danyal Raja

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Koli1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	2	1.75	0
R Athapaththu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	3	5.75	0
Asif Bevinje0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.5	0	6	1	3.27	1
Taranjeet Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	33	0	8.25	2
Muhammad Moiz1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	15	1	5.00	5
Ijaz Hussain0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	23	2	7.67	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	1	2/4
3	0	2/5
4	4	6/5
5	3	9/5
6	8	17/5
7	7	24/5
8	5	29/5
9	5	34/5
10	6	40/5
11	10	50/5
12	7	57/5
13	3	60/6
14	9	69/6
15	4	73/7
16	9	82/7
17	16	98/7
18	15	113/7
19	3	116/8
20	2	118/10

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