JerseyversusNetherlands

5 Jul 2025 · T20

Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 7 wickets

Jersey20.0 overs160/7 Netherlands19.3 overs161/3 Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Jersey49%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Jersey rate stronger than Netherlands (1,579 vs 1,533 on our results rating)
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Jersey started on 49%; Jersey batted first.

Jersey’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Jersey's chances ranged from 2% to 66% during the match (Netherlands: 34% to 98%).

Biggest swings

5.6: DT Doram to NA Greenwood, NA Greenwood out. Netherlands up from 56% to 70%.
2nd inns 15.5: B Ward to MP O'Dowd, six by MP O'Dowd. Netherlands up from 62% to 74%.
2nd inns 16.5: J Sumerauer to SA Edwards, six by SA Edwards. Netherlands up from 71% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Jersey160/7 Netherlands161/3

Innings 1

Jersey

160/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Jersey batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Harrison Carlyonlbw · Kyle Klein 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kyle Klein	11	7	2	0	157.14
Asa Tribecaught · Max O'Dowd · Aryan Dutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Max O'Dowd · b Aryan Dutt	4	6	0	0	66.67
Zak Tribebowled · Kyle Klein 4 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Kyle Klein	39	33	4	1	118.18
Jonty Jennerbowled · Bas de Leede 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Bas de Leede	27	13	5	0	207.69
Nick Greenwoodbowled · Daniel Doram 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Daniel Doram	3	4	0	0	75.00
Julius Sumerauercaught · Daniel Doram · Bas de Leede1 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	0
Kyle Klein0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	3	10.50	1
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Daniel Doram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	1	5.33	0
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	0	10.00	1
Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	8	14/1
3	9	23/2
4	14	37/2
5	7	44/3
6	5	49/4
7	5	54/4
8	5	59/4
9	11	70/4
10	10	80/4
11	6	86/5
12	9	95/5
13	16	111/6
14	3	114/6
15	4	118/6
16	6	124/6
17	14	138/6
18	10	148/6
19	4	152/7
20	8	160/7

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