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Photo: Birdy10
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Region Final · 2025 · Men
5 Jul 2025 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 49%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 2% to 66% during the match (Netherlands: 34% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittbowled · Harrison Carlyon 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harrison Carlyon | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Asa Tribe · Charles Perchard 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Asa Tribe · b Charles Perchard | 62 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 129.17 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Jake Dunford · Charles Perchard4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jake Dunford · b Charles Perchard | 50 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 116.28 |
| Scott Edwardsnot out 4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 41* | 24 | 4 | 1 | 170.83 |
 Bas de Leede |
| not out |
| 0* |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| — |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Carlyon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Sumerauer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Greenwood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Perchard0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Benjamin Ward0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 10.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Tribe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Michael Levitt, 0.4) · 2-103 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 13.3) · 3-155 (Max O'Dowd, 19.0)
Recorded target: 161 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 8 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 44/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 51/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 59/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 65/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 74/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 79/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 87/1 |
| 13 | 15 | 102/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 104/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 109/2 |
| 16 | 14 | 123/2 |
| 17 | 13 | 136/2 |
| 18 | 12 | 148/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 155/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 161/3 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
